What would happen if the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 20%? The clear five-wave pattern in bond yields is causing concern.
This is my perspective on the forces that might apply on the UK 10Y Gilt. It can climb along the red rectangles to fall down to the big green or if the first red rejects it or the bottom arc attracts it, we might see support in that area. The vertical green is a special one where unusual or special circumstances and price action might occur, either higher...
Folks know how I feel about very long term (multi year/decade+) outlook for inflation and yields - they are going higher. And I have called for higher yields (and spreads) and thus dollar so far this year. BUT BUT BUT The yield spread chart is suggesting a potential divergent high which could have MAJOR implications across asset markets. Is it fortelling a turn...
We suspect that the US 10Y yield chart has topped short term having tested and again failed at its previous uptrend at 4.74 (which is now acting as resistance) . Please see the weekly chart. This throws the spotlight on key nearby support where we find a short term uptrend, last week's low, the 55-day ma and the 200-day ma together with a previous high all...
This is a simple setup resulted from the analysis, processing, and simulation, of several future scenarios that might unfold. The rectangles are projected support and resistance zones where the price might hit a bump, create a turnaround, or halt it's actions into a consolidation zone, before continuing on its initial path. The small orange one marks a potential...
US10Y > 8% what happen for those house/ car mortgage? What happen to #gold when big player have "guaranteed" in bank deposits? What happen to "healthy" bank's "stock"?..
rate is moving up in yellow parallel channel lower yellow line is working as perfect trend line in recent may fomc fed has said he neither see stag or flation if there are no hike in future then lower trend line must break if second wave of rate hike is coming then trend line must hold and it can go up 5%
With predominantly bearish price action during the week, intraday sentiment is more shifted towards a continuation to the downside at this current time. Due to higher time frame narrative, I am looking out for a retracement to 4.563% hourly fair value gap. Candle body closure below 4.455% will negate the idea.
The matter still requires deeper analysis, despite the absence of wide-ranging movement today. The recent decline in bonds did not help boost gold prices. The yield on the two-year US bond is currently at a support level of about 4.8% on the one-dimensional chart and may look to rise. If the Federal Reserve maintains a tight policy, gold may struggle to rise....
There is clear 5 wave impulse down and clear initial impulse up which has a-b-s correction. What else needed for long?
I will start forecasting full years in advance and provide updates from there finally understand how the bond markets works dont be fooled folk 2024 nasdaq is crashing market is overbought the recovery was too quick easy come easy go and only the informed are preparing their shorts if u appreciate my work like, tip, comment, follow
The weekly range spans from 4.570% - 4.739% and with the weekly EQ being tagged alongside buyside getting swiped, I am scoping out for the daily order block which is near the weekly sellside @ 4.593% and the second target being the lows at 4.570%. Some form of a pullback into the lower displacement weekly fair value gap is a projection for throughout the...
During the previous period the market was trying to price its expectations of a less than three rate cuts during the course of this year, giving up on the Fed's announcement from the latest FOMC meeting. The meeting held on May 1st, showed that the market was right in its assumptions, considering that the emerging US inflation might put halt on rate cuts this...
The critical support level to watch here is the 50-day MA at 4.38%, as a failed break below this yield will allow yields to spike to 5% off the back of a continued sell-off in US long-term paper despite the Feds efforts to aid the US bond market. Keep an eye on the tail in this week’s US 10-year note auction! The markets were hit by a dovish FOMC statement last...
This chart shows the bullish SMT Divergence happening across the US Treasury Bond yields. According to the ICT methodologies this could indicate a potential continuation for the DXY Index higher.
Rough map pf rate expectation without pretension of accuracy for dates nor timing...
Disclaimer 1: This is a bias view. I think that 20Y yield (as well as 10Y) will be going down. Disclaimer 2: Note that this is the 2nd time this year I am calling for longer duration yields to go down (linked in this analysis). Analysis portion: 1. H&S formation. 2. Completion of double combination of zig-zag.
As you can see there is a strong correlation between this predictive chart algo and the bond market steepening predicting the recession before the reason why. Now maybe this time is different. Maybe the massive stimulus during covid will give a false positive here. I just doubt it.